On paper the two vehicles are close in power but the edge goes for the F80 M3 and the edge in power is considerable. First of all, the F80 BMW M3 is very underrated in its output. It is closer to 500 horsepower than 400 horsepower. It also is not sending power to all four wheels but the rear wheels making for lower drivetrain losses although it also makes it harder to launch off the line.
Both vehicles have dual clutch transmissions so that is a wash. The Macan is heavier by roughly 700 pounds. The way the race should play out is the Macan getting a slight lead and then the M3 should pull past it after second gear and keep pulling with relative ease.
That is exactly what happens. The M3 destroys the Macan Turbo which is no slouch with its 0-60 in 4.5 seconds, 0-100 in 11.1 seconds, and 13.1 second 1/4 mile. The M3 just has too big of a power to weight advantage with 0-100 coming in 8.6 seconds and the 1/4 mile in 12.4 seconds. Past 100 this is no longer a race especially as aerodynamics at higher speeds favor the M3.